Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright. I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams.
I got things going in a positive direction last week. I finished 3-1, with the upset special missing by just a point. I am now 18-22 against the spread, but the upset special is 5-5 winning outright and 7-3 ATS.
Week 11 picks
Louisville at No. 13 Syracuse (-21): Coach Dino Babers’ squad is having a pretty good season in an otherwise down year for the ACC. One of the reasons it’s a down year is because of the dumpster fire that is Louisville. As if the on-field news isn’t bad enough, a report came out on Wednesday saying that 20 players have asked for the paperwork needed to transfer. They only reason Bobby Petrino is still coaching this team is because his buyout is too big — for now. Pick: Syracuse (-21)
South Florida at Cincinnati (-14): I do not pay a lot of attention to trends, but USF is one of the worst ATS teams out there at 2-6 on the season. The Bulls have simply not been as good as their record indicates, and there is no more evidence of that than the 41-15 torching Tulane put on them last week. Cincinnati has been a pleasant surprise this season and should keep its roll going. Pick: Cincinnati (-14)
Purdue at Minnesota (O/U 58): I rarely pick an over/under line for a best bet, but I couldn’t resist. The way Minnesota’s defense has been giving up points in conference play — 41.6 per game, including over 50 to Nebraska and Illinois — and the way Purdue is lighting up scoreboards, the Boilermakers may get the over by themselves. They won’t need to, though. The Gophers have enough offense to chip in too. Pick: Over 58
Upset of the week
Northwestern at Iowa (-11): Northwestern has had a weird season. The Wildcats are a game ahead of Purdue and Minnesota in the Big Ten West, and two games up on the Hawkeyes. However, they are just 2-4 at home, but a perfect 3-0 on the road. They never overwhelm anybody, but they don’t get blown out either. Iowa has lost two tough games in a row to fall out of the division race after a promising start. NU will muddy this one up and find a way to win late. Pick: Northwestern (+11)
Other CFP candidates
So which teams should you back in Week 11 of the college football season? And what playoff contender will get a huge scare? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected score for every single FBS matchup, all from the model that has returned over $4,000 in profit to $100 bettors over the last three seasons.