It's tournament time again, and the Chattanooga Mocs have put a little extra added excitment to the Big Dance. It's been a while since my brackets haven't been busted early on, turning my March Madness upside down. Nevertheless, I'll give you my take on the tournament with some fearless predictions on the big dance:
FIVE THAT COULD SURPRISE
1. WEST VIRGINIA-- The Mountaineers have made the tournament for the fourth time in five years, but never higher than a six seed. They have history on their side, however, finding a way to the Sweet 16 twice, and the Elite 8 once during that run. West Virginia should use their grueling run through the nation's toughest conference, along with a solid duo in sharp shooting guard Alex Ruoff and versatile forward De'Sean Butler to make a run to at least the Sweet 16 once again.
2. GONZAGA-- No longer really considered a Mid-Major, Gonzaga has developed into a major player on the national basketball scene. Right now, there are few teams playing better basketball. While their conference may be soft, the Zags loaded up and knocked down some big names early in the season, sweeping Tennessee, and beating Oklahoma State and Maryland. Gonzaga won 17 of their final 18 regular season games before ripping through the West Coast Conference
tournament. With the impressive one-two punch of Jeremy Pargo and Josh Heytvelt, don't be surprised if this is the one team in the South that could hold off North Carolina and Oklahoma and find themselves in the Final Four.
3. MISSISSIPPI ST.-- No matter how "down" some might believe the SEC to be, it's pretty ridiculous to SEC a 20+ win SEC tournament champion with a 13 seed, but here the Bulldogs are. Their resume isn't particularly impressive, but the Bulldogs could be a prime case of the team that peaks at just the right time, winners of 10 straight heading into the big dance. Not only is the team peaking, but Jarvis Varnado has become a shot blocking nightmare. Varnado blocked an all-time SEC best 165
shots this season, more blocked shots than 325 Division I TEAMS had this year. The Bulldogs can also be a threat beyond the arc with four starters hitting at at least a 35% clip from downtown. With 6-7 swingman Ravern Johnson's ability to hit the three (leading the team in three pointers made and percentage), Varnado could wind up in a shot blocking competition with Hasheem Thabeet and UConn in the Sweet 16.
4. SOUTHERN CAL-- Another red hot team heading into the tournament, Southern Cal won five straight before making their Pac-10 presence felt and taking home the conference crown. The Trojan defense shut down two of the best guards in the nation in UCLA's Darren Collison and Arizona State's James Harden. Depth will be a problem for the Trojans, who have a limited bench, but with an opening round match-up with defensively limited Boston College follwed by a possible clash with turnover prone Michigan State...The 10th seeded Trojans could move to the Sweet 16 and beyond.
5. TENNESSEE-- Big Orange fans know just how frustrating this team can be. On paper, perhaps one of the most athletically gifted teams in the entire tournament. Talent up and down the roster, a team that on their best night can run with the nation's best. Unfortunately, probably the most inconsistant team in the field. They do play raggedly at times, making boneheaded basketball plays and playing defense like most teams on the AND 1 street ball tour. The run to the SEC Title game was the Vols best ball of the year. The SEC title game...not so much. If Tennessee can get big time efforts from Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism, and find a little defense along the way, Big Orange could sneak up on Pittsburgh and make a run to the Elite Eight...and if things shake out the right
way, the Final Four. Most Tennessee fans agree that getting all those stars to align would be a pretty big if...
FOUR POSSIBLE UPSETS
1. (13) CLEVELAND ST. over (4) WAKE FOREST-- I may not be gutsy enough to pick this in my bracket, but it is certainly a possiblity. The Demon Deacons are one of the youngest teams in the tournament, with only three seniors on the roster. Wake starts two sophmores and a freshman in their first five, and guard Harvey Hale is the only senior that sees any real playing time. Despite the youth, it's a team that can play with the best on any given night, even spending time as the number one team in the country earlier this season. Cleveland State is a senior heavy team with a stout defense and a history of upsets. The Vikings reached the Sweet 16 back in 1986, when Mouse McFadden led State to a shocking win over Indiana. Just this season, the Vikes upset one of the big boys, knocking of Big East champ Syracuse at the buzzer. And don't forget their win over Butler to claim the Horizon conference title. Don't get me wrong, if the right Wake team shows up, it could run all the way to Detroit and the Final Four. But if the same team that got ripped by Miami and Maryland comes to play, it might be a short stay in South Beach for the Deacs.
2. (12) WESTERN KENTUCKY over (5) ILLINOIS-- On paper, this one should not look like that much of an upset. Illinois has struggled down the stretch with some of the more atrocious offensive performances the sport has seen this season. 36 points in a loss to Minnesota, 48 points in a win over Tulsa, and who can forget that riveting 38-33 church league-esque loss to Penn State. The Illini get a lot of credit for their defense, but I'm not so sure that D-ing up in a bad offensive league really makes you a stellar defensive team. On the flip side, Western Kentucky has won seven straight and can play a little defense too, holding Lousivlle to 54 points in a 14 point blowout victory earlier this year. The Hilltoppers made a Sweet 16 run last season, and with the back-court tandem of Orlando Mendez-Valdez and A.J. Slaughter, should score enough points against the Illini to make it back to the second round this year.
3. (13) MISSISSIPPI ST. over (4) WASHINGTON-- Again, this would be an upset only in seeding, really because right now, the Bulldogs are playing much better than their seeding. Both teams tend to live or die by the three point play, and both have monsters in with double-double machine Jon Brockman for the Huskies battling block monster Jarvis Varnado. In the end, the Huskies have struggled a little more with their three point shooting down the stretch than have the Bulldogs, and State's 6-7 swing man Ravern Johnson is big enough and has enough touch (40% from 3) to pull Brockman out of the lane, and lead State into the next round.
4. (11) TEMPLE over (6) ARIZONA ST.-- The Owls will be hoping for Christmas to come early in Miami, as in Dionte Christmas, who averages almost 20 points a game, and lit up Tennessee for 35 in an 88-72 win over the Vols. The Sun Devils have a star guard of their own in James Harden, also a 20 point a night player. It should be exciting to see these two go head to head. The difference, surprisingly, could be the competition. While the Sun Devils played in the Pac-10, the Owls might come away with a tougher schedule, despite playing in the A-10. Temple notched wins over Penn State, Tennessee, and Xavier, and also faced year long top 25 competition like Clemson, Kansas and Villanova. Arizona State is another Jekyll and Hyde team similar to Wake and Tennessee that could find themselves one and done against a hungry, motivated star like Christmas.
In the end, I like the seedings to pretty much hold serve outside the Elite 8, with LOUISVILLE beating West Virginia to slide into the Final Four from the Midwest. UConn and Memphis really had me going back and forth, but in the end, I don't like UConn inconsistancy, and I do like MEMPHIS, their defense and their intensity and like the Tigers to move on from the West. In the East, Pittsburgh already lost to Villanova once this year, and I like VILLANOVA to do it again and advance from the East. Down South, I like Blake Griffin to win the power forward Battle of the Century over Tyler
Hansbrough, but UNC will win the war and move to the Final Four.
That leaves MEMPHIS upending Louisville and UNC getting by Villanova in the title game......where MEMPHIS avenges last years last second letdown and takes the 2009 NCAA Tournament Title.
http://news12.mayhem.cbssports.com/brackets [1]
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