Winter Storm Update.

The forecast gets harder….

After models turned a bit cooler yesterday, they have turned around to paint a slower, warmer scenario for our area. Snow lovers, at this point, it does not look good. Still we need to not let our guards down.

Winter Storm Watches are still in effect for the uncertainty of this storm, as we all know, things can change. Low-level temperatures are still going to be in question, but as I mentioned yesterday, I am leaning more towards a heavy cold rain for most of the area. With a wait a see set-up, I could be wrong.

**I do want to mention, in advance of the storm tomorrow morning, our Futurecast is pointing out some overrunning precip to develop just before sunrise. Right now, if it develops, it will fall as light sleet or freezing rain. Surface temps will be at or just below freezing which could lead to slick travel. We will watch this closely.**

With the latest forecast models runs, the storm is still expected to slow a bit. Also the NAM, and GFS have trended warmer, especially the NAM. This is new and not set in stone, but if the models this afternoon agree, our snow chances will diminish tremendously.

What I expect:

1. Watch for early morning precipitation, maybe sleet or light FZ rain.
2. Cloudy Friday, warm to around 40.
3. Rain develops late in the afternoon into the evening. Mountains and parts of the plateau could see snow or mix first.
4. Likely ALL rain Friday Night through Saturday Morning. Northern Mountains, Plateau, and TN/NC Mountains could still see snow. We will watch IF there is a change over to all snow. Temps will fall to the mid 30s.
5. Light Rain or Drizzle will give way to lingering snow showers from NW to SE during the morning to mid afternoon on Saturday. This could add or produce a dusting to an additional inch.
6. Saturday evenin, Storm moves East and we begin to dry out. Sunday and Monday morning will be cold with lows around 20. Runoff from rain or snow will refreeze on area roads. This could lead to tricky travel.

Best case scenario for snow lovers is for the low to track further south and for the rain to help cool the air enough to produce snow late Friday into Saturday. This is not out of the question, but a big if. All the dynamics from gulf moisture to Polar and Tropical Jetstreams all come together, so surprises could be likely. We are still more than 24 hours away.

Our FUTURECAST is still leaning towards a rain event with Mountain Mix.

Given the new model solutions, the NAM suggest this for snow:

The GFS among others are slightly warmer; especially overnight Fri-Sat. GFS is Faster.

I am still not confident this a snow event for us with the exception of the mountains. Accumulation forecast will have to wait till later. I still say watch out for those along I-40 as I still think along a Nashville to Knox line, a few spots may get over 6".

Here is the latest HPC(national guys) Forecast. We are still right on the edge with again, I-40 the bulls eye:

Rain totals could reach 1" or more.

At least be prepared.

See you soon,

 Brian