7/16/08 Tropical Activity Could Impact Us.

The weather locally has been quiet. Nice and cool in the morning along with low afternoon humidity has made for a real treat in the middle of July.  The tropics have not been so quiet. There is a possibility that 2 disturbances could impact our weather.

On the map below, you can see the three areas being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. Our eyes are on the disturbance in the eastern Gulf.

According to the NHC, “SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND”, but this moisture is expected to move north or northeast. With forecast model madness, its tough to pinpoint an exact track of this disturbance. We have increased our chances of rain on Friday and over the weekend with the increase in moisture, which will lead to afternoon storms. You will feel the moisture with higher humidity starting Friday. If the bulk of the moisture moves in overhead, we would be dealing with plenty of heavy rain Fri-Sat.   

Bertha…she just will not give up. She is now the longest tropical storm ever in the month of July…13 days so far. No threat to the U.S.

The next disturbance just east of the Caribbean Islands has a better chance of becoming our next named storm. NHC says “THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY” 

I have posted the forecast model tracks for the next several days. Click on the image for a better view. You will notice that several of the tracks take the storm into the southern Gulf after 5 days. That is when we have to watch closely. The disturbance will have to go through an area that is not conducive for development in a couple of days. Once past this, we’ll see.

Remember, the peak of the hurricane season is not till September 10th.  See you soon,  

Brian