5/8/08 Severe Weather This Afternoon.

Be aware, severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. Already this morning, storms and tornadoes have developed to the west. Around 8 central an apparent tornado struck Tupelo, MS. This storm is moving through northwest AL now. This is the type of storm we need to watch. It is usually the individual storm cells out ahead of the “main” line that have the best chance to be severe or rotate.

Note the severe risk below. All are under a “slight” risk of severe weather this afternoon. I like to think of this as a 50/50 chance within a 25 mile radius of any given location.

So far this morning we have seen a few breaks in the clouds and around 70 as of 11am. Unfortunately the more sunshine, the more unstable we could become. Storms are breaking out along the plateau with heavy rain and gusty winds. Nothing severe…yet. Note below what we are looking at for the rest of the afternoon.

The question is, how unstable do we get? Right now, the higher cape values(heat and moisture combined i.e. energy) remains to the southwest into to central and north AL, where the best chance of severe weather will be. A tornado watch is in effect for north AL. 

I am looking for numerous showers and storms to overspread the area this afternoon, some strong with heavy rain and gusty winds the main threat. For the next few hours, Chattanooga and North will see the most storms. Later this afternoon and evening another round of storm will march through in more of a linear fashion. As noted above, what to watch for are storms that develop ahead of this line.

The main threats this afternoon and evening are very heavy rain and damaging winds. An isolated tornado is possible. You can see the evolution of storms in our new weather page, here.  All the storms will end just after sunset tonight. The cold front that will move through tonight get washed out on top of us tomorrow. This lingering front could touch off a few storms tomorrow afternoon. 

Sorry Moms…Mother’s Day WILL BE WET… 

See you soon,

Brian